The interesting part of this is that the media outlets (CBS, NBC, CNBC, MSNBC, ABC, CNN, and probably FoxNews too) continue to try and spin this along with the banks that got government aid.) One can talk about seasonally adjusted numbers and non-seasonally adjusted numbers but the point is that they're adjusted to reflect typical things that go on in certain areas of the nation. So I want to focus in on how the media was saying this is good news.
The number at 584,000 was worse than the 570,000 consensus estimate and worse than the 559,000 shown for last week. We can say oh Dave it's only one week and there is improvement going on. Well the big ticket item to the media was that the 4 week running average dropped to 559,000 as well, and the 4 week average smoothes out week to week fluctuations, BUT with 584,000 being higher than the 4 week average, I want to know how are we getting a green shoot from that? Lat week's jobless claims number was 559,000 and the week before that was in the 520,000 range. So for two straight weeks, the jobless claims numbers have increased. Meanwhile unemployment is high. The higher it gets, the less jobs there are to lose because less people have jobs. These current numbers don't give sign for economic growth, but do give sign for less of an economic contraction. How much of it is because of government spending??
Well about a week into the Cash for Clunkers program (I can't believe they called it clunkers. You trade in a perfectly good car for something with better gas mileage.) My Target Car, rest that baby is peace (ok I didn't want to get personal but I must here), would not qualify because it got more than 18 MPG. But is this a clunker to you?
If that's not a clunker I don't know what is. I was driving THAT car until April 2009 folks! That car would be ineligible not because it didn't drive but because it got better than 18 MPG. Well now the fund they're claiming is exhausted in a week. They're doing everything they can for you to buy your neighbor's car thru the tax code. don't worry you'll be paying for it later on when all these bonds from the record auctions come due, don't worry, it will happen, either thru taxes or deflating the dollar and the cost of our food and energy skyrocket like it's 2008 all over again, while they say there's no inflation because it's not CORE inflation.
This makes me think back to other incentive plans. Oh yeah that's right, it means everyone has a new car and they won't need to buy one and hence it hurts future demand. you watch what happens when this short term blip ends and then NOBODY wants a car. Good luck Government Motors, Chrysler and Ford, etc. I hope Ford never needs taxpayer assistance because this program hurt them and we know it's going to hurt them. Is the government soon going to make everyone buy a new car every 4 years or ban any car that's more than 5 years old from being driven to promote continuous car sales in the new fascist dictatorship we know as the Obamanation?? Oops did I just give those cronies an idea! Hey I'm not writing the laws they are. Don't look at me!!
So we continue to get these lies and spin and though I admit doomsday and the Great Depression II is off the table for now. this government might be setting us up for a day when it is so destructive there will be riots and looting and it will look like a 3rd world nation here as globalization continues. It's only hurting America unfortunately that our government puts in these policies that harm traditional Americans (not the protected rich elite like Goldman Sachs) and help illegal immigrants and foreign workers!
Just ask yourself is the 4 week jobless claims average is below the recent week's jobless claims in the midst of the worst recession in 70 years a good sign?? somehow it must be to CNBC. When Q3 has positive GDP cuz of the government spending and everyone says see we we're right there recession is over, I'll bring you all back to Q2 of 2008 when the economy grew at roughly 3% and George W. Bush said see the economy is just fine. Yeah that was so right on too. As I've felt, this recovery will be lackluster, might dip right back into recession might not, but the robust growth days aren't coming back for awhile and this might in fact just be like Japan. Very lackluster growth for what now 15-20 years, when Japan is growing. That's kind of what I see here with some government manipulated data that will show some quarters to do great because of inventory buildup, etc. I feel Q3 will be a positive quarter for all you folks out there.